I’ve got a good acquaintance who loves movies more than I do. I mean, a lot more. She’s going to go see Avengers 2 about nineteen times over the weekend, and she’s budgeted (!) to see it fifty times during the course of its run. That’s a lot of ass-in-seat. Her film collection is in the thousands. The only thing she doesn’t watch is horror, because she finds them to be stupid.
We have a wager going on in reference to the new Avengers and Star Wars movies that are dropping this year.
We both know that the Avengers is going to suck all the air out of the room over the next month. Any film that debuts alongside it can’t expect to do very well against it. Not as well as they would have done if it weren’t released. We both understand that this film will do over a billion dollars on a global scale.
We both also understand that Star Wars (more than likely) won’t do a billion dollars during its run. I believe in the power of JJ Abrams, but I don’t think that he’ll be able to pull a billion dollars to this franchise.
However, we differ when we talk about domestic gross.
I believe that Star Wars will due better domestically over the course of its run than the Avengers.
Don’t get me wrong: the Avengers is going to do a lot of business, and it’s going to do it fast. It’s going to be heavily front-loaded. I think that it will slow down, though, and that’s where Star Wars will come through.
Star Wars will be the tortoise to the hare that is Avengers 2.
It’s going to be a close race. I have no doubt about that. But I also believe that I will prevail.
What are the stakes?
If I win, she has to do a marathon of 5 horror films.
If she wins, I have to do a marathon of 5 Keanu Reeves films. (I’m not a fan of Keanu. I’ve seen mannequins with more expression and greater acting ability.)
(To be ultra honest, it doesn’t matter who wins this bet. We’re all winners. How? We’re in the position that we’re taking it as a given that a comic book movie will dominate theaters and mindshare this summer. That’s huge. That wasn’t possible even 10 years ago. And we’re getting a new Star Wars film with most of the original cast back in their roles without what is now the bad storytelling of George Lucas. Everyone wins.)